The Stretch Run

With September about to start, and many teams either preparing for the playoffs or fighting for their playoff lives, a quick look at who will be in the playoffs, and who wont be.

AL East
With the recent historic sweep of the Red Sox everyone assumed the Yankees were primed to run away with the division title and again dash the hopes of all of New England. But it may not be that simple. The Yanks have struggled since the series, but so have the Red Sox. The 5 1/2 game lead for the Yanks seems like a lot, and although I think this could come down to the final weekend of the season, I just can't see the Sox catching the Yanks. The pitching for both teams is not great, but with Mussina coming back, and Randy Johnson, the Yankees have a formidable top 3 in Wang, Mussina and Johnson. And with the upgrade of Lidle at the back of the rotation the Yanks can go into most series and win 2 out of 3. After Schilling, I don't think a single Sox pitcher is at all impressive. Both teams have shaky bullpens, great closers and exceptional offenses, but it always comes down to pitching.

X-Factor - David Wells

Prediction: Yankees win division by 3 games.

AL Central
The best division in baseball, this is a three team race, although two of the three teams will probably make the playoffs. At the all-star break it seemed as if the Tigers were going to run away with the division and the best record in baseball, but since then the Twins, White Sox, and Tigers have all been beating up on each other, with no team pulling away. If the season ended now the Tigers would win the division and the Twins would be the Wild Card, but you can't count out the Sox. The defending champs arguably have the best 1 through 5 starters of any team in baseball, but the inexplicable struggles of Contreras and Buerhle have dashed their playoff hopes. I don't see the Tigers relinquishing their lead in the Central, but the Twins could make it close. The addition of Sean Casey, while a quiet deal, could end up being the best move David Dombrowski has amde the whole season. Popular in the clubhouse, a gamer, and a nice lefty bat, he seems to be just what the Tigers have needed. Unless the white sox turn around their pitching, they won't even get a chance to defend their title, and Ozzie may have to call his whole team a bunch of pussies.

X-Factor - Todd Jones

Prediction: Tigers by 6 games

AL West
How will the west be won? I'm not really sure, because this is the weirdest division in baseball. You have perhaps two of the most talented under achieving teams in the Mariners and Rangers who can't seem to find a single pitcher who knows what the phrase "quality start" means. Meanwhile, the top two teams have more pitching and talented young players than they know what to do with, yet can't hit a lick. From a pitching and talent perspective, I'd take the Angels, but the A's just keep on winning, and I don't see them losing the division, especially with Rich Harden set to return in Sept. The angels rotation is scary, with Lackey, Weaver, Santana, Escobar and Saudners, but they waited too long to make moves and bring up guys like Kendrick and Weaver to make a run this year. They could be the team to beat next year, but Oakland has a nice 5 1/2 game lead, and seems to discover a new way to win each night. The rotation without Harden isn't spectacular, but it is very effective, with three players with 12 or more wins (Haren, Zito & Blanton) and a good closer in Street. The bullpen is solid too, but look at the offense and it seems like they need a shutout everyday. But recently between Swisher, Bradley and The Big Hurt, they seem to produce just enough runs to win.

X-Factor - Rich Harden

Prediction: A's by 4 games.

AL Wild Card
I know I know, picking the Twins to win it when they have a game and a half lead isn't exactly ballsy, but they are a heck of a good team. Their offense is pesky, and between Mauer, Morneau, Hunter and Cuddyer, they have some great hitters, and manage to get more game winning singles than i've ever seen. Plus with the return of Liriano imminent, and Radke finding the fountain of youth, they seem to be primed for the playoff picture. A solid if not great bullpen, two #1 starters, and a wild card in the rookie Matt Garza, they seem to want it more than anyone else, and could be like the Angels of a few years back. Do you really want to see Santana, Liriano and Radke in a playoff series? Yikes.


X-Factor - Matt Garza

Prediction: Twins by 3 games over both Sox.

NL East
The only division in baseball that has been pretty much decided since the all-star break (and maybe even before) the Mets are clearly the class of the national league, and no one in the east is even going to come close. After the Phillies ridiculous trade of Abreu and Lidle, they actually somehow got better, but they aren't going anywhere until they find some pitchers who don't stay in shape by beating their wives. The Marlins, while maybe having the most pure talent in baseball are still a couple of years away from contending, although I think any team would kill to have the young pitching that they have. Braves & Nationals don't even enter into the discussion, and probably won't for years. You know their isn't a race in you division when your biggest worry is will your catcher miss some games to make a mix CD for John Franco's daughter.

X-Factor - Mr. Met

Prediction: Mets by a Baker's Dozen

NL Central
When the year started, and the Reds were in first, and keeping pace with the Cardinals, everyone said it wouldn't last. When the Cardinals finally took over first, and were seemingly pulling away, everyone said the honeymooon was over for the Reds. A funny thing happened after that - The cardinals forgot how to win ball games. Their once formidable offense dissapeared and is suddenly Pujols and 8 other guys who on some days resemble the Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen of old, but on other days look more like David Bell and a hospital ward. Meanwhile, the reds made some bold moves to reinforce what they felt was their biggest weakness, their bullpen. Easy Eddie has been great for the reds before he got hurt, although I still disagree with the trades of Lopez and Kearns. More so with Kearns. Despite all this, and helped by the Cardinals devestated starting rotation, the Reds are only 2 games out of 1st, and looking much more confident than the Cards who seem to be looking around saying, why aren't we leading by 10 games, we've got Albert. While neither team sports the pitching staff that wins your playoff games, the Cards have a clear advantage with Carpenter going every 5th day. Needless to say, the Reds offense, and what seems to be their unflappable belief that they are the team to beat in the central, has me thinking Reds are Central champs.

X-Factor - Ben Sheets (Cards play Milwaukee 7 times in the last month of the season)

Prediction: Reds by 1 game. Will send champagne to the Pirates for letting them play them the last series of the year.

NL West
I almost don't even want to talk about this division because just like last year, its depressing how bad these teams are. Arguably not a single team in this division is out of the race, but I don't see Colorado or Arizon making a run at it just because both teams are so extremely flawed, to list their issues would be a whole nothing discussion. San Fran is only 4 out, but they too have a lot of issues. They could be a dark horse, with a decent pitching staff and lots of veterans trying to regain their youth by drinking Barry Bonds's blood. In the end though they just don't have much talent and need to seriously look at their future, and figuring out where to go afte Vizquel, Bonds and Alou are gone. Oh yeah, and do I need to say more than Armando Benitez is their closer? San Diego is quite talented, but they run into the issue that they have almost no offense. Who's their best hitter? Piazza? Giles? Cameron? Barfield? Even Steve Traschel could shut them out. If Peavy keeps his late season turn around going they could ride him into the playoffs, but the Dodgers look really scary. Forget their offense, which is an interesting mix of OBP and speeds with a little pop, but looks at their defense and pitching. They quielty may have the best rotation in the NL. Penny, Billingsley, Hendrickson, Lowe, and some guy named Maddux. Three guys in their rotation have 10 or more wins, and although none is a legit #1 starter (Penny is close, but too inconsistent) they have 5 guys that on any given night could come in and shut you down.

X-Factor - Andre Ethier

Prediction: Dodgers by 2 games. final series of the season at SF could be very very interesting.

NL Wild Card
Every Mets fan fear, best of this sorry bunch right now seems to be Philly. While their pitching is pathetic, their offense is top notch, and between Utley and Howard, they have some scary punch in the heart of their lineup. I could also easily see the Cardinals sneaking in here after the Reds beat them. No race is more up for grabs with 8 teams within 5 games of the lead. But to give you an idea of how bad this race is, the Marlins, Brewers and Astros are included in that group. Whoever gets the wild card could be a team that simply gets hot for a few weeks and has a nice winning streak. I'm picking the phillies just simply because they are hot, and they don't have to leapfrog a ton of teams to get to the top. Plus they get to play the marlins, braves and nationals, and are done with the Mets after this current series.

X-Factor - Brad Lidge

Prediction: Phillies by 3 games.